Dublin South Central

As we look forward to the birth of the second republic what will it mean for us.The new republic will be ruled by a new set of rules .The rules of least resistance, they will tell us and we wont resist.

With all the money being taken out of the economy we can expect a major contraction in our quality of life.Our bailout will come with strings attached .Policies of cut,slash and deregulate will be forced upon us in return for a helping hand.A contraction of about 30% in living standards can be expected during the lifetime of the next administration assuming they go the distance .In the small print of our bailout agreement ,will be a proposal for deregulation.This deregulation model being the alter on which we were sacrificed in the first instance.

Fine Fails relentless desire for power has led to this sorry impasse .The embracing of the Now defunct Progressive Democrats untried in a small economy free market economic  policies in return for their support in forming a government .Deregulation and letting the market find its own level being the mantra.

One of the mainstays of this flawed model was to reduce the  interference of government on business Deregulate  and unregulate were both considered to be the same thing .The failure of this policy can be demonstrated at the top and bottom of our economy.

The government deregulated/unregulated the banks .They removed the government from responsibility for watching over the banks .Appointed a banking regulator and unleashed the banks to find their own way.Forgetting what the banks had previously done when allowed to divert from standard banking practices.The Insurance Corporation Of Ireland debacle which nearly brought down a previous  administration was forgotten .The poachers were now in total command of the henhouse.

Just in case the ship of state needed to adjust course .Compliant finance ministers were  appointed One such was Charlie Mc Creevie.He who once said “In a number of member states particularly some older ones there is a fear that economic reform will undermine social protection…Such fears is not only misplaced but is counter productive”.With the malice of hindsight we now have to look at the SSIA .This was sold to us as a mechanism to slow down an overheating  economy.in any other economy tax increases would have been applied to put the brakes on spending .We now have to ask the question was this the biggest gamble in Irish political history .Was the purpose of this scheme to boost the capital base of the banks  that backfired.Mc Creevys exodus to Europe should of alerted us . If the SSIA was perceived as a great success amongst his fellow TDs why did he not stay on in the Dail he would of been a certainty for the office of Taoiseach.like many finance ministers before him.Was Mc Creevy aware of the failure of  the free market economic policies that he and the Progressive Democrats had espoused.

The Deregulation/unregulation  of the Irish banking system led to an unlimited inflow of money from over seas lenders to the Irish banks.Ireland became a proving ground for overseas banks and lenders to try out this deregulated/unregulated banking model.It was a no brainer by foreign banks to throw cash at the Irish market.They only had to look back at the record of previous Irish governments to see that if anything went wrong the government would step in and help.The to big to fail idea encouraged them to grow to make sure they were to big to fail.

At the lower end of the economy we have the taxi industry.Progressive Democrat Minister Bobby Molloy deregulated/unregulated this.The taxi industry was an optical exercise in selling the benefits of free market economics  to the public .If deregulation/unregulation of the taxi industry worked it would demonstrate that that the market could find its own level  and could be relied on to regulate itself.How would we judge success in the deregulated/unregulated taxi industry .If people didn’t have to wait to long for a taxi.That would give the illusion of success.No waiting time and a bountiful supply of taxies.No concern for the welfare of the driver or the safety of the passenger.No concern about congestion ,pollution. The influx of unqualified operators into the industry.The inactions of the regulator to achieve one endgame the optical illusion of deregulated/unregulated success.

In banking the illusion of success was written across the skyline in big new buildings. Rows of roof tops all reaching off into the distance financed by Irish banks .Occupied by people who could not affordto own the property but believed that property inflation would negate the negative and result in an ultimate profit for their investment.

Workers who invested in the taxi industry in the hope of providing a job for themselves and a means to  pay for their homes .Have seen their investment wiped out and their prospects of earning a living obliterated by free market deregulation/unregulation.Caused by oversupply.

The free market policy of deregulate/unregulated will always fail .Because it cannot regulate the human element out of the equation .Greed ,Avarice ,Pride  are all human desires and cannot be eliminated by deregulation/unregulation.

In banking the deregulation/unregulation model has failed yet the IMF,ECB will insist on more deregulation/unregulation as part of the conditions for their bailout.In banking the freemarket dictated .That if somebody wanted to borrow money from a bank and the bank could borrow that money off of someone else for less than you are willing to pay them in interest.That was all that mattered. Do the deal there was no regard for the purpose or value of the loan only the profit margin.

In the deregulated /unregulated taxi industry the same rules applied cheap entry with no regard for quality or viability of service.The only difference between the two deregulated/unregulated  industries Is that banks got to big to fail.The taxi industry got too big that it is guaranteed to fail as we know it .

The IMF will insist on more deregulationof services .Transport,Energy,Water,Hospitals,this will lead to a race to the bottom.a minimum of services available without charge.A big reduction in wageswhen we accept this bailout and the regime that goes with it .We can expect to see about a 30%reduction in our incomes over the lifetime of the next Dail if they go the distance.This will lead to a further collapse in property prices which will lead to greater losses for NAMA.and this in turn will lead to a total collapse of the Irish banking system.This is inevitable if we don’t find a way forward and quickly.

The FG policy of divesting of the family silver by selling off state assets like the ESB ,CIE.Coilte and any thing else of value.Is the last throw of the dice to try to avoid total collapse of the state.Ireland needs to exit the Euro currency as soon as possible and set a rate for the Irish currency against the Euro which would allow us to trade out of our difficulties.

We should introduce a working visa exemption for American Citizens.This would incourage American multinationals to invest in Irelandas they could bring in their own management teams.

One of the qualities of the Irish is we understand Grey.Things don’t have to be black or white they can be grey which can be described as dark white or light black.Its this charisteristic that has led to our present predicament.Fine Fail,s lust for power which led them into the grey area of coalition with the PDs.That tempory little arrangement that will now stay with us forever.We possibly have one more chance to get this right and should not be forced into making rash decisions.

The two examples offered of Deregulated/unregulated industries should alert people to the possible outcome of any bailout .After the dust of deregulation /Unregulation settles and we have reached the bottom .It will become obvious that we cannot sustain our low cost low paid economy .The big players will survive and gobble up the small ones .Then prices will increase as all our services will be controlled by monopolies  we will have to pay up .There are no free lunches .Bailout an interesting word .To bailout a sinking ship .Or Bail the price you pay to get out of jail while awaiting your sentence.